Potential Uses of OEF Meeting

Monday, March 16, 2015 - Thursday, March 19, 2015
USGS Powell Center, Fort Collins, CO

Meeting Photos (click here)

Meeting Goals:

To brainstorm on the various potential uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF, which will provide real-time information on earthquake likelihoods), and to come away with a prioritized list of planned implementations.

Background and Meeting Strategy:

Scientists have a variety of ways of modeling the spatiotemporal clustering of earthquakes, each of which embodies different assumptions, approximations, and simplifications with respect to a very complex and largely obscured natural system. Candidate OEF models have been put forth by scientists in the past, only to be criticized by others for the ways in which they are lacking (that’s what we do as scientists), which has essentially delayed OEF implementations. However, given “all models are wrong, but some are useful” (Box, 1980), it is probably more important, if not critical, to define the potential uses before defining the best scientific model(s), where the latter should adhere to Einstein’s famous phrase: as simple as possible, but no simpler.

This meeting is therefore aimed at surveying the range of possible uses of OEF. While we hope participants will have some good ideas about how they might utilize OEF, we do not expect the full spectrum of potential uses to be immediately obvious, which is why the meeting will be more of an interactive brainstorming session (e.g., 50% of the time dedicated to discussions). In short, we would like potential users to describe the types of decisions they need to make, and what type of OEF information they think they could use to do so. Similarly, we will hear from model developers on the types of potentially useful information they think they could produce. Others will describe challenges and best practices with respect to communicating OEF information.

The outcome will be a prioritized list of potential uses and users, from which a smaller group will prepare a phased-implementation-plan over the two days following this meeting. Important to the latter will be the identification of 2 or 3 different user groups that are willing work with us in order to deploy something useful. The findings of this meeting will be published for the benefit of others. Future meetings will address: 1) the best-available science (given the planned uses); 2) operationalization challenges; and 3) verification and validation.

March 16, 2015

Time Title Presenter(s)
7:30 – 7:30 am Breakfast at the meeting room  
8:30 – 8:50 am Powell Center welcome and logistics Jill Baron
8:50 – 8:55 am Meeting goals and strategy Ned Field
8:55 – 9:15 am Self introductions  
  OEF Background  
9:15 – 9:35 am What is OEF, and why do we need it? Thomas Jordan
9:35 – 9:40 am Importance of OEF to the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Michael Blanpied
9:40 – 10:00 am Experiences with OEF in Italy Warner Marzocchi
10:00 – 10:15 am Coffee Break  
10:15 – 10:35 am Experiences with OEF in New Zealand Matt Gerstenberger
10:35 – 10:55 am History and future of OEF at the USGS Andy Michael
10:55 – 12:00 pm Discussion  
12:00 – 1:00 pm Lunch  
  Potential OEF Products  
1:00 – 1:20 pm Current Modeling Efforts for California (from UCERF3-ETAS to Operational Loss Modeling Ned Field
1:20 – 1:40 pm ShakeMap, ShakeCase & PAGER: Letting USers Shape System Development David Wald
1:40 – 2:00 pm Overview of Loss Modeling Capabilities at the USGS Kishor Jaiswal
2:00 – 2:20 pm Overview of Uncertanties in Loss Modeling Kieth Porter
2:20 – 2:25 pm Post-earthquake Tagging (indicating building states) Nico Luco
2:25 – 2:45 pm Perspective from Reinsurance, Insurance Linked Securities, and Capital Markets Jaesung Park
2:45 – 3:00 pm Coffee Break  
3:00 – 3:30 pm Discussion  
  Round-Robin Discussion of Potential Uses  
3:30 – 5:00 pm
continuing to the next day if more time is needed

The remainder of the day will involved back and forth discussions with potential users, where from each of the following (and anyone else) we would like to hear about the decisions that are made and what information you think could be helpful:

  • Terry Tullis with respect to NEPEC
  • Austin Holland with respect to induced seismicity
  • John Schelling with respect to Emergency Management
  • Christopher Terzich with respect to the Private Sector
  • Loren Turner with respect to Caltrans
  • Ken Campbell with respect to Commercial Loss Modelers
  • Nilesh Shome with respect to Commercial Loss Modelers
  • Norm Abrahamson with respect to PG&E and Other Utilities
  • Shawna Ackerman with respect to the California Earthquake Authority
  • Herby Lissade with respect to Emergency Management at Caltrans
  • Jill Barnes with respect to School Systems
  • Connie Lackey with respect to Medical Professionals

March 17, 2015

Time Title Presenter(s)
7:30 – 8:30 am Breakfast at the meeting room  


Communication Issues and Strategies  
8:30 – 8:50 am Introduction and overview of communication issues Lucy Jones
8:50 – 9:10 am

Communication Strategies Learned from the Canterbury, NZ Aftershock Sequence

Anne Wein
9:10 – 9:30 am OEF and Risk Perception, Communication, and Management Ann Bostrom
9:30 – 9:50 am Lessons from the Social Sciences Deanna & Tomothy Sellnow
9:50 – 10:15 am Discussion  
10:15 – 10:30 am Coffee Break  
10:30 – 12:00 pm Further Discussion  
12:00 – 1:00 pm Lunch  
1:00 – 4:00 pm Further discussion of potential uses, products, and communication strategies, all aimed at constructing a prioritized list of planned OEF implementations.