Workshop on Use of UCERF3 in the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps #2

Thursday, February 21, 2013
Mark Petersen and Ned Field
USGS Menlo Park Campus

We will present the current state of the WGCEP’s UCERF3 time-independent model (, and to gauge consensus on its applicability for use in the 2014 update of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Map (NSHM; Much of the methodological details of the UCERF3 model was covered at the October 2012 workshop. Thus, this meeting will focus primarily on changes to earthquake rates and their implications for seismic hazard.

There is no cost to attend the workshop, and it is open to all. Please note that this is a scientific working meeting, and not focused on policy or outreach issues.

Time Title Presenter(s)
8:00 – 8:15 am Opening Remarks and Meeting Goals Mark Petersen
8:15 – 9:45 am Overview of UCERF3 Development Ned Field
  - Methodology  
  - UCERF3.2 Results  
  - Evaluation  
  - Remaining Issues  
  - Discussion  
9:45 – 10:00 am Break  
10:00 – 11:00 am Fault-By-Fault Review  
  - Highlights from the Four Days of Meetings Tim Dawson
  - Implications of Deformation Model Weights Tom Parsons
  - SRP Perspective David Schwartz
  - Discussion  
11:00 – 12:00 pm Grand Inversion Details  
  - Formal Review (presentation and report) Tom Jordan
  - Test Results Morgan Page
  - Discussion  
12:00 – 1:00 pm Lunch  
1:00 – 1:20 pm Estimating Mean Earthquake Recurrence from Paleoseismic & Historic Data Andy Michael
1:20 – 2:20 pm Hazard Implications (& UCERF2 Differences Explained) Peter Powers
  - Hazard Maps  
  - Hazard Curves at Sites  
  - Discussion  
2:20 – 2:50 pm Reiteration of Current Issues & WGCEP Recommendations Ned Field
2:50 – 3:00 pm Scientific Review Panel Perspective Bill Ellsworth
3:00 – 3:20 pm Observation on Non-Uniqueness of Simulated Annealing Results Art Frankel
3:20 – 3:40 pm NSHMP Decision Making Process Mark Petersen
3:40 – 5:00 pm General Discussion and Consensus Mark Petersen
5:00 pm Adjourn  



The workshop will be held in the Building 3 Auditorium (Room 3240) at the USGS Menlo Park Campus (345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA). For map and directions, go to: