Workshop on Instrumental & Historical Seismicity in UCERF3
Date:
Friday, June 10, 2011
Conveners:
Andy Michael, Karen Felzer, Ned Field, Dave Jackson, & Tom Parsons
Location:
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA This workshop will review issues and proposed solutions with respect to the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs, with particular emphasis on how this influences: a) the association of events to specific faults; b) inferred temporal variations in earthquake rates; and c) regional magnitude-frequency distribution estimates. This workshop will also address best practices for estimating the spatial distributions of a-values, maximum magnitudes, and focal mechanisms for background seismicity (events off our explicitly modeled faults).
| Time | Title | Presenter(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | Introduction to the Day | Andy Michael |
| 08:45 | How Seismicity Was Used in UCERF2 and Plans for Its Use in UCERF3 | Ned Field |
| 09:15 | Review of Catalogs and Rate Determination in UCERF2 and Plans for UCERF3 | Andy Michael |
| 09:45 | Discussion of UCERF2 - What Needs to Change and is Not on the Rest of the Agenda? | Andy Michael, Moderator |
| 10:15 | Break | |
| 10:30 | Instrumental Catalog Magnitude Issues | Andy Michael |
| 11:00 | Toward a US National Catalog | Bill Bakun |
| 11:15 | Historical Earthquakes: Issues & Biases | Sue Hough |
| 11:30 | Discussion | David Jackson, Moderator |
| 12:00 | Lunch | |
| 13:00 | Focal Mechanisms and Mmax for Off-Fault Seismicity | David Jackson |
| 13:15 | Smoothed Seismicity Rates | Karen Felzer |
| 13:30 | Declustering, Rates, and b-values | Andy Michael |
| 13:45 | b-values and Spatial Variability | Karen Felzer |
| 14:00 | Break | |
| 14:15 | Discussion | Ned Field |
| 15:00 | Evidence for the Characteristic Earthquake Magnitude Frequency Distribution | Norm Abrahamson |
| 15:30 | Evidence for the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude Frequency Distribution | Morgan Page |
| 16:00 | Forecast Application Example: Japan, Tohoku Earthquake | Yan Kagan |
| 16:15 | Discussion | Tom Parsons, Moderator |
| 17:00 | Adjourn - all problems solved |