UCERF3 Use of Physics-Based Simulators

Thursday, June 9, 2011
Terry Tullis, Ned Field, and Keith Richards-Dinger
Embassy Suites Mandalay Beach, Oxnard, CA

The purpose of this workshop is to bring together the developers of Physics-based Earthquake Simulators capable of generating long earthquake catalogs on a complex network of California faults with members of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) developing UCERF3 and other interested parties. The goal is for the members of the WGCEP to develop an understanding of what the Simulators could provide toward the development of this and later generations of UCERFs and for the Simulator developers to understand more about what is needed by the WGCEP.  With much time for discussion, the team of Simulator developers will describe the Simulators, show and compare Simulator results, discuss the strengths and weakness of Simulators, and suggest ways in which Simulators might be useful now and in the future.

June 9 Title Presenter(s)
08:30 Introduction to Workshop Terry Tullis, Ned Field
08:35 Simulators in the Context of the WGCEP Ned Field
08:50 -- Group Discussion  
09:05 How Simulators Could Be Used for Creating UCERF Jim Dieterich
09:20 -- Group Discussion  
09:35 Generic Description of Earthquake Simulators Terry Tullis
09:50 -- Group Discussion  
10:05 Break  
How Different Simulators Differ from Generic Description
10:20 ALLCAL Steve Ward
10:30 -- Group Discussion  
10:40 Virtual California John Rundle
10:50 -- Group Discussion  
11:00 RSQSim Keith Richards-Dinger
11:10 -- Group Discussion  
11:20 ViscoSim Fred Pollitz
11:30 -- Group Discussion  
11:40 EQSim Olaf Zielke
11:50 -- Group Discussion  
12:00 Lunch  
13:00 Simulator Results for allcal2 Fault Model: ~UCERF2 Faults Terry Tullis
13:40 -- Group Discussion  
14:20 Tuning Fault Strengths to Paleoseismic Interevent Recurrence Intervals Steve Ward
14:30 -- Group Discussion  
14:40 Tuning Simulations in Other Contexts: Forecasting Earthquake Simulators John Rundle
14:55 -- Group Discussion  
15:10 Break  
15:25 Effects of Dynamic Triggering Assumptions on Frequency-Magnitude John Rundle
15:35 -- Group Discussion  
15:45 An Independent View on the Role of Simulators Dave Jackson
16:00 -- Group Discussion  
16:15 The Future of Simulators Jim Dieterich
16:25 -- Group Discussion  
16:35 How Might Simulators Be Included in UCERF3+ ? Ned Field
16:50 -- Group Discussion  
17:05 General Discussion  
17:30 Adjourn