Decision Making

There are two main types of decisions that will need to be made: 1) what model components to pursue and implement (the branches of the logic tree), and 2) what weights to apply to each within any given UCERF.

Such decisions, of course, will have to be made and a case-by-case (or branch-by-branch) basis. Details can generally be found under the "Epistemic Uncertainties" section of each model component at this web site.

In general, however, the process will go as follows:

1. The ExCom hosts meetings and/or workshops on the relevant topic to solicit expert opinion from the informed professional community (members of the SRP are always encouraged to attend).
2. The ExCom, with perhaps assistance from others, drafts proposed branches and preliminary weights with full documentation and posts these on the web. The intent is for these weights to express the views of the broader community, not just those of the ExCom.
3. Email feedback is requested from the broader community and any responses will be entered into an official record.
4. The ExCom will revise and document accordingly.
5. The SRP will review the entire process and iterate with the ExCom on final choices if need be (and the MOC can serve as referee if necessary).

This entire decision making process will be well documented for posterity. We will also strive to establish a quantitative basis for setting weights, both for numerical reproducibility and future modifications. However, it may be that "gut feeling" will, in some cases, be the best or only way to assimilate a large number of constraints.