The WGCEP is responsible for developing Uniform California Earthquake Forecasts (UCERFs) using the best available science.

The working group convenes periodically to build statewide, time-dependent earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) that are endorsed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and the California Geological Survey (CGS).


The full UCERF3 time-independent model is available (with appendices) at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/, and the main report has also been published as Field et al. (2014, BSSA, vol 104, pages 1122-1181).  The time-dependent components of UCERF3 are still under review.

For the results of the 2007 working group,
please see the UCERF 2 Final Report.